It makes me want to love better, to hug my baby more, to appreciate the miracles in my life, my family, my friends, my teachers, The animals, plants, precious food, the bugs and butterflies. That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe -- it's larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. Or could they be underestimates of the true number? In other words, when seen in the aggregate, that probability is simply stating that it is very hard to predict _who_ will exist and not that someone will. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in two. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. Now let's say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. Yes, youre here all right, and math can barely account for your existence, so tiny are the odds; but God has overseen every detail and knew you long before you were born. Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing. Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. Xahej (ZAH-edge) "Xi" Bajipura she/her/Ms. On my birthday, I had a strangely pertinent thought: what's the probability of being born? Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. But when we take it back throughout all the unbroken generations of life, then to the formation of the earth, then the development of the galaxy, then the universe being created from the Big Bang, your odds have now been reduced to 1 in 10 followed by 2,685,000 zeroes. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about one in 2000. Borels Law says such a number means something is impossible, and yet, its not. Yet here we are. In a recent talk at TEDx San Francisco, Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author, mentioned that scientists estimate the probability of your being born at about one in 400 trillion. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. A fertile woman has about 100,000 viable eggs while a man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. 2019 Ali Binazir, M.D., M.Phil, All Rights Reserved. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. In other words, as this infographic figures it, you are totally improbable. Love, H, Writer, Mama, Spiritual Warrior @RecovHer, Sharing is Caring! Miebakagh Fiberesima from Port Harcourt, Rivers State, NIGERIA. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. Lets say we have a insect thatmirabile dictuwe can send to the moon. Dr. Ali Binazir took it further. Let's not get carried away here; we'll just deal with the human lineage. Step 3. In 1943, the distinguished French mathematician mile Borel developed a law about probabilities that stated events with a sufficiently small probability never occur (Institute of Mathematical Statistics). And whats even more profound is that 10^2,685,00 is not even remotely comparable with eternity. If there is only one outcome then the probability is 1/1=1. So I got curious: Are either of these estimates correct? Now before you start telling your parents that they could have traded any of your younger siblings for the lottery winnings, your siblings are miracles too! By that definition, Ive just shown that you are a miracle, he wrote. A fertile woman has 100,000 viable eggs on average. Dr. Ali Binazir illustrates the extremely unlikely chain of events that would have to occur in order for you to be born with this . Want to Read. The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible. Pretty darn close, for such an unusual calculation. Id gladly take those odds over trying to become a millionaire in any other country. I was toying with this other idea, about an owl who falls in love with a cat and brings it mice every day. Now lets get down to some of the biological details: each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis; you are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. So now we must account for that for 150,000 generations by raising 400 quadrillion to the 150,000th power: Thats a ten followed by 2,640,000 zeroes, which would fill 11 volumes of a book the size of mine with zeroes. Step 2. But, doesnt that seem a bit low? Lets say the fly takes a brief respite of one million years between trips. There were doorknobs and doorbells where one touch had covered another beforehand. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. To say that we are contingent beings is a vast understatement. So, round-trip time works out to be about 14 yearsfor the fly to go to the moon and back. Youre not just one in a million, youre one in a 102,685,000. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Worldwide, there are 2,043 billionaires among 7.4 billion people. (Just dont blow up your car trying to have the exhaust be blue smoke like I saw on that viral video, or set any forests on fire, lets keep it safe, kids.). It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together -- about the population of San Diego -- each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Because there you are futzing about on the internet reading incredibly interesting articles like this one. Well surely reply you within 48 hours. And worry and fear? He goes further back to look at the probability of all your ancestors successfully mating, and of all the right sperm meeting all the right eggs to make each one of those ancestors. Scripture says. Were we meant to be, each and every one of us? I would call that a personal relationship with God. Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing. It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together -- about the population of San Diego -- each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. But even if you dont believe in that, the science is enough. Not only are you and I contingent, we are highly improbable! Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. 3.97 avg rating 549 ratings published 2010 5 editions. So, it seems fair to say that there are an infinite number of possibilities of any event happening not matter how remote the chance. Let's say a life preserver's hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside about 0.5 square meter. He concluded that the chances of a turtle sticking its head out in the middle of the life preserver was about one in 700 trillion. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are., Buddhists have talked of the preciousness of this incarnation. So he gave us an analogy that helps: "It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting togetherabout the population of San Diegoeach to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. This is also true of your grandparents parents, and their parents, and so on back to the beginning of human time. So far, so good. Something was dropped and then picked up. You may think You say that to everyone!. Previously, I had heard the Buddhist version of the probability of "this precious incarnation." They each roll the dice and they all come up with the exact same numberfor example, 550,343,279,001., A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. Otherwise theyd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. Its maddening to see people worry so much. Dr. Binazir calculated that the odds against each of us being born produced a number that makes the brain hurt. So the combined probability is already around 1 in 40 million long but not insurmountable odds. I hope you use your chance well. God has always known us, intended us, loved us, and planned for us. Same to all of us. I would certainly add in (sadly) that there is the possibility of abortion or miscarriage, but even a simple analysis yields an astonishingly small probability. Were all winners in life without doing anything! They say that it is impossible for human life to exist without divine intervention. dr ali binazir odds of being born. What impresses me is that at the moment our parents came together to form us, the Creator of the Universe stopped what He was doing to give, to each and every one of us, a soul unique to itself. What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? Step 3. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? The chances of them talking to one another is 1 in 10. Well, the right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents, too. So now we must account for those 150,000 generations by raising 400 quadrillion to the 150,000 power: That's a ten followed by 2,640,000 zeroes, which would fill 11 volumes the size of my book. The great mystery of our existence stretches back in time into the very heart and mind of God who has always known and loved us, has prepared for us and made a way for us. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. The numbers are getting plenty huge as it is. It makes me want to practice love, forgiveness, gratitude, acceptance, service/charity, kindness, being humble while inherently owning my miraculous self. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. Lets say its a fly that moves at about 4 mph. Binazir recounted this Buddhist analogy: Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean and there is exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. It was always likely that a living cell would jump out of that primordial soup because the conditions for that to happen must have existed somewhere; and, probably, in several somewheres. Mathematician Professor John Littlewood of Cambridge University defined a miracle as an event happening with a frequency of one in a million. Moreover, the second shot would not necessary run into the red. Please pass this post along. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. To illustrate how precious each human being is, self-help author Mel Robbins said during a 2011 Ted Talk that the likelihood of you being born as you has been calculated at about one in 400 trillion. Regardless of your skin color, country of origin, body size, religion, gender, or view point, WE ALREADY MADE IT HERE. You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. Post your query OR Review in below comment box. Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age, going back about 150,000 generations to the origin of man. dr ali binazir odds of being born. So he gave us an analogy that helps: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting togetherabout the population of San Diegoeach to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. The learned professor was actually pulling everyones legs, but Littlewoods Law has been conscripted as proof of a number of strange theories. First, your parents have to meet, then stay together long enough to reproduce, then conceive you at the exact right time so that the right egg drops (your mother has 100,000 in her lifetime), then the right sperm must make it in (your father produces 4 trillion during the years you could be born). Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: one in 2000. Click the image to enlarge it and check their numbers: Of course, there are poets who argue exactly the opposite: that each of us is fated to exist, that there is a plan, and that all of us are expected. If you assume the current population is 1% of the history of humanity, the total number of combinations increases to 1.1 x 10^39. If even once the wrong sperm met the wrong egg, you would not be sitting here noodling online reading fascinating articles like this one. Its like winning a free ticket to the the best party in the world. Tip #3 of 20: You are already a goddess, so feel free to act like one. Probability of right sperm meeting right egg: 1 in 400 quadrillion. In its Final Data report of U.S. deaths for 2010, the CDC reported assault (homicide) dropped off of the list of the 15 leading causes of death, becoming 16th, following pneumonitis due to solids and liquids.. Or are we glorious accidents, each and every one? Heres Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of a human being born: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. On the Probability of Your Being Born.. If this writer can grasp the concept then any one of those infinite monkeys can. For a more thorough discussion of this topic, visit the Tao of Dating and Awaken Your Genius blogs. As you aptly point out, many persons losts lots of money at the roulette because they quests mathematically accurate. The chances of your specific sperm meeting your specific egg? Step 1. They each roll the dice and they all come up the exact same number say, 550,343,279,001.. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. Here it should be realize it is a quest work. Thats a pretty big number, I thought to myself. Which one's bigger? Lets say a third of those (4 trillion or 4 x 10, So, the chance of your particular chain of ancestors having remained unbroken for all that time would be 1 in 2, To account for all 150,000 generations, we raise 400 quadrillion to the 150,000, Thus, the probability of your existing at all is about 1 in 10, This video makes a moving point, but it attributes our existence to luck. Now lets say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. Let's say a life preserver's hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside about 0.5 square meter. They each roll the dice and they all come up with the exact same number for example, 550,343,279,001. Dr. Ali Binazir. The answer, if my math is right, (assuming a mass of the moon of 7.34 x 10^22 kg), is about 7.34 x 10^34 years. That is incredibly unlikely to the point of impossible. dr ali binazir odds of being bornmartin et julien bouchet biathlon. Thats a ridiculously huge number. The atheist and agnostics give the existence of God about the same odds. That's a pretty straightforward calculation. The number of atoms in the known universe is estimated at 1080. The conclusion: The odds that you exist at all are basically zero., He illustrates it this way: It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. For a more thorough discussion of this topic, visit the Tao of Dating and Awaken Your Genius blogs. Let's confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10th of the world's population 20 years go (1/10th of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited. If we really took it in we would fall on our knees with rapture and tears of gratitude. When you do the math, which I didnt but Dr. Binazir did: That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion.. Dr. Binazir is an author and personal change specialist who studied at. HubPages is a registered trademark of The Arena Platform, Inc. Other product and company names shown may be trademarks of their respective owners. Suitcases checked and standing side by side. I'm Heidi, I'm a writer, a mama and a sober recovery teacher/mentor. If one square kilometer is a million square meters, then the probability of Mr Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or. This is also true of your grandparents parents, and their grandparents, and so on till the beginning of time. So, the combined probability is already only about 1 in 40 million. (This is also known as consulting especially if you show it all in a PowerPoint deck.). He used a thought experiment to illustrate this that became known popularly as the infinite monkey theorem; this states that if an infinite number of monkeys pound the keys of an infinite number of typewriters they will eventually write the complete works of Shakespeare. I was alerted to a fascinating article by Ali Binazir, who sets forth mathematically the probably that each of us exists. Do you know the odds of being alive? Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age going all the way back not just to the first Homo sapiens, first Homo erectus and Homo habilis, but all the way back to the first single-celled organism. You are a representative of an unbroken lineage of life going back 4 billion years. This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Well then, that would be one in 2 , which is about one in 10 -- a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. Dr. Ali Binazir, who describes himself as a happiness engineer, thinks its way off the mark. Thats a number so huge it hurts to think about it. Again, it is similar to the probability of winning the Loto: while my chances of winning are very small, the probability of someone (or someones) winning are much higher. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (41014). Step 2. That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe -- it's larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. They'd be amazed to hear that Chance has been toying with them now for years. Harvard alumnus and creativity consultant Dr. Ali Binazir tried to calculate the mind-boggling odds of one being born into existence on earth, and came up with interesting results. Then the probability of Mr. The odds of you existing have been calculated by Dr. Ali Binazir. "That's a pretty big number," I thought to myself. Part of HuffPost Wellness. We're about to deal with eggs and sperm, which come in large numbers. To further awaken to the miracle that is you, get The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible, now available in book, ebook, Kindle, audiobook, and Sinai indestructible stone tablet. Is that an African fly or a European one? So beginning with your folks, your odds of you being born come out to 1 in 400,000,000,000,000,000 or 1 in 4 quadrillion. Dr. Ali Binazir Has 10 Years + Experience As A Author. A donut with no hole, is a Danish. The right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents; otherwise theyd be different people and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. I believe The Source who I call God loves us infinitely, unimaginably. In fact, He has been preparing a place for each of us in the kingdom, from before the creation of the world. So lets say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million: Probability of boy meeting girl: 1 in 20,000. For the sake of completeness: (102,640,000)(1045,000)(2000)(20,000) = 4x 102,685,007 102,685,000, Probability of your existing at all: 1 in 102,685,000. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. You get the volume of planet Earth. The following analysis, paraphrased at some points, is taken directly from Mr. Binazirs article: The probability of father meeting mother is 1 in 20,000. What Does Jesus Mean When He Says We Must Be Salted with Fire. That probability is low but the presence of super-novae throughout the cosmos is not. Step 1. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. So whats the probability of your existing? The odds of you being born as you are about 1 in 400 trillion, or more. Wowser. I bet the odds of becoming a millionaire in Zambia, where I lived for one year, is less than 1%. And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. 530 Lovett Blvd, Houston, TX 77006 +1 (713) 942-9600; pricing strategy of samsung mobile phones. Your email address will not be published. Throw your exploding gender reveal football to festively burst with pink or blue powder. One of my brothers made his own calculation regarding one of Binazirs assumptions and came up with a figure that would make the probability of existence even smaller: My numbers are more simplistic, but assuming 100,000 eggs/woman & 12 trillion sperm/man creates 1.2 x 10^18 combinations for every man/woman pairing (i.e., significantly more combinations than the 400 trillion or 4 x 10^14 mentioned in the article). Then the probability of Mr. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in two. That's a pretty straightforward calculation. If you shouldnt even be here, then what is the point of worrying? This is true no matter how far back in your family's history you may wish to go. Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? But lets make it longer. You can start the series by clicking HERE. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (410 14). He calculated that an average human could expect to experience such an occurrence once every 35 days. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Now let's say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. But Im not mathy. The probability that you came about and exist today is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water into the middle of that life preserver. It seems like wasting our precious lives on self pity or addiction is even less attractive, in this light. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: 1 in 2000. The first single-cell organism emerging from an inanimate chemical soup is not something that could have happened by chance. Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. How fast does a laden fly fly? That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, "The answer is 500 squintillion," we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. The Nobel Prize winning poet Wislawa Szymborska once wrote about two lovers who liked to think they'd met entirely by chance, but no, she says, there was nothing chancy about it. The fact is, you have a monumentally better chance of becoming anybody you want to be than of even being at all. But let's think about this some more. Get ready to have your socks blown off, ya beautiful miracle, you. Not quite ready yet To become their Destiny, it pushed them close, drove them apart, it barred their path,stifling a laugh,and then leaped aside. Multiplying it all together for the sake of completeness (Step 1 x Step 2 x Step 3 x Step 4): Probability of your being born: one in 10. And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. Some of the numbers are approximations, but generally they are on the conservative side. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about 1 in 2000. If I had 400 trillion pennies, I could probably build a decent-sized penny fortress with it. But its not even remotely comparable with 10^2,685,000. If the first shot fall into the black hole, it remains only the red, and not green or blue. One number that is tossed about a lot is that the odds against your being born are one in 400 trillion. Rich E Cunningham from Ontario, Canada on May 14, 2020: Interesting article, guess we are lucky to be here! According to author Mel Robbins, scientists have estimated that our odds of being born are about 1 in 400 trillion. (This is also known as "consulting" -- especially if you show it all in a PowerPoint deck.). First, lets talk about the probability of your parents meeting. If I had 400 trillion pennies to my name, I could probably build a decent-sized penny fortress with it. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: 1 in 2000. I would caution anyone from drawing a religiously-minded conclusion from these probabilities and heres why: While the probability of any one of us existing is very low, the probability that 350 million humans existing in the United States is very high. I have one baby so far, but Im still fertile, according to science. Because were about to deal with eggs and sperm, which come in large numbers.