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The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Jeff. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. 108,000 people. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Found an error on our site? (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Click here, for more. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Free and open-source. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. ET. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. It almost became religious.". If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. Yes, another Hillsborough! This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. 12. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Twitter Twitter Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. All rights reserved. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. So, where are the bellwether counties? That's 14 in a row. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. our Gitlab account where you can The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Their concerns are real. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Until this year. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Their emotions and decision making process are real. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. These counties could play an . The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. . 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Republicans have paid some attention. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Arapahoe County. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. There are 391 such counties. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. It is easy to gloss over this. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio.